A key challenge for monetary policymakers is to predict where inflation is headed. One promising approach involves modifying a typical Phillips curve predictive regression to include an interaction ...

The link between changes in U.S. inflation and the output gap has weakened in recent decades. Over the same time, a positive link between the level of inflation and the output gap has emerged, ...

The Phillips Curve is back. In saying so, I do not mean to imply that being “back” refers to a sudden reappearance of a stable empirical relationship between unemployment (or the output gap ...

Last February, all plausible estimates of either the output gap or the multiplier predicted that the ARP would generate substantial inflationary pressure in 2021 and 2022. We now have data on how ...

Zsolt Darvas and András Simon propose a new way of measuring output gaps by augmenting the traditional Phillips curve with a measure of the current account Oct. 22, 2015 6:24 am ET | WSJ Pro Share ...

We also test the alternative hypothesis that low euro area inflation is the result of global low inflation. We do this by including a number of global variables in our Phillips curve, namely the ...

And what matters for the Phillips Curve or accelerationist theories of inflation is the level of the output gap (and unemployment), rather than the rate of GDP growth.

This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically ...

The Phillips curve has undoubtedly collapsed in Japan." And perhaps it also has in the US — at least in the way that William Phillips, the New Zealand-born economist, first presented the idea in ...

Regarding Jordan’s economic performance and output gap, official data shows that Jordan's real GDP grew by 2.4% in Q2 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. Inflation was 2.3% in January ...

Output grew 1.9% last year and, despite a first-quarter contraction, should grow more than 1% this year. That doesn’t sound like much but it’s actually faster than Japan’s long-term growth ...